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Future Growth

1.    A visionary 50-year plan, planning mechanism and infrastructure commission

Melbourne’s population will increase over the next 50-years at a rate of 1.4 per cent, being a slower growth rate than the previous 50-year period of 1.65 per cent.  Nevertheless, by the year 2060, the Committee estimates that Melbourne will have a population of around 8 million people.

How do we make Melbourne more liveable at 8 million in 2060, than at 4 million in 2010?

Melbourne must develop a 50-year plan to deal with the multitude of planning and infrastructure issues likely to surface as population grows.

A possible approach to improved infrastructure coordination and management is to establish a permanent statutory body that reports to Parliament.  This body would assure the condition and performance of Victoria’s infrastructure and long-term planning for future needs, in line with defined economic, environmental and social objectives.

The Committee believes a new governance structure is also needed to guide and implement Melbourne’s planning policy as the city grows.

2.    Better coordination of infrastrucutre financing and construction

To solve some of our infrastructure challenges, we must actively look for ways to collaboratively create solutions and engage the community in compromise.

The Committee sought to highlight poor long-term infrastructure planning with the example separating road and rail.  Removing level crossings is critical to prevent the city-wide, system-wide, mobility crisis Melbourne is about to face.

Rail level crossings are the hinge-point issue preventing more trains servicing Melbourne’s rail network.  As more Melburnians use rail each year, level crossings will stay closed more often and consequently, our roads will continue to choke. 

With approximately 172 rail level crossings throughout Melbourne, each costing an estimated $100 million to remove; somehow, $17.2 billion must be found.  It’s a startling figure, but investing in rail and road separation is vital to ease Melbourne’s road congestion long-term.  

Committee Members are working together to explore options to remove Melbourne’s most troubled level crossings in ways that are economically, socially, environmentally viable.

3.    Urban Density

Melbourne’s decreasing density is dangerous.  Contrary to public opinion, Melbourne’s density has nearly halved from 23 people per hectare in 1960, to approximately 14 people per hectare today.

With 51 per cent of households predicted to be ‘no child’ households by 2025, strong evidence suggests Melbourne’s housing and density mix is heading in the wrong direction.

The Committee believes the majority of Melbourne’s future population growth should be contained within the current Urban Growth Boundary (UGB). 

This will help ensure that over the next 50 years, we can lift our density from a third of London to two thirds of London, thereby creating the market mechanisms for better localised community facilities, public transport and necessary infrastructure for a sustainable city.

In 2011, the Committee identified that for Melbourne to achieve a greater mix of housing options, the community would need to understand the mixes them before they could embrace difference.

4.    Social Cohesion

Melbourne cannot be a city that does not do social cohesion well.  Whilst our Melbourne Beyond 5 Million series focused on preserving and improving Melbourne’s liveability as it grows beyond five million people, it is the software (relationships, trust, belonging and identity) in this hardware that ultimately shape life quality.

Social cohesion is an ongoing process of developing a community of shared values, challenges and equal opportunity based on trust, hope and reciprocity, to enable a sense of belonging, connectedness and belief.

Recent Member surveys indicate 100 per cent of Committee Members identify social cohesion as important, however only 50 per cent feel they have the knowledge to contribute to discussion.

The Committee, in partnership with Mission Australia, is leading the development of a paper on the importance of Melbourne’s social cohesion as it grows beyond five million people.  The paper is intended to educate Members and define the Committee’s future role in preserving a socially cohesive city.